The Pre-Mortem Nobody Wants to Run: How to Surface Second-Order Failures Before They Arrive
It's 18 months from now and this initiative has failed catastrophically. What happened? That question — asked sincerely, before any resources are committed — surfaces risks that no amount of forward-looking optimism will reveal. Here's the exact pre-mortem protocol I run and why the second-order effects are where the real damage hides.
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The Room Was Too Excited: Why Consensus Is a Signal, Not a Comfort
When everyone agrees quickly, something has been overlooked. Unanimous enthusiasm without adversarial testing is the most dangerous consensus in a boardroom. Here's how to pressure-test it.
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The historical success rate for this type of initiative is 15%. Your team believes you'll beat it because of factors X, Y, and Z. So did every other team that failed. I'm not saying you're wrong — I'm saying you need to prove your deviation from the base rate before you fund it.
